Demographic Transition Theory Expository Essay

Introduction, modernization and demography, works cited.

Human beings’ population around the globe has experienced many changes. The population of an area can exhibit either an increase or a decrease. The two major aspects relating to the development of the demographic transition theory are birth and death rates. These two determine the population of a given place over a given period; therefore, they form the basis for the demographic transition theory. Statisticians express it in terms of the birth and death rates per 1000 people in a population.

The demographic transition theory represents the changes from high death and birth rates to significantly low rates over a given period. The demographic transition model shows the stages that are involved in the reduction of these rates.

It is important to note that the rate at which these changes occur is dependant on the level of industrialization that a give geographical area has experienced (Cadwell and Schindlmayr 418).This brings in the concept of modernization. The concept asserts that human beings will always put efforts to better their life situations.

A good example is the development of automobiles to enhance transport and the invention of medicine to cure some of the diseases that affect humans. It is obvious that different parts of the world differ as far as industrialization and civilization are concerned. Putting this into consideration, the demographic transition theory/model gives the stages that populations pass through as the birth and death rates pass during their decline.

The model has five major stages. The first stage is associated with a low population growth and an equal rate of births and deaths. All human populations were at this stage until the 18 th century when industrialization began in Western Europe. The rates were above 30 per 1000 people. The second stage involves a decrease in death rates while the birth rates remain high which results to population increase. This stage represents the period immediately after the Agricultural Revolution of the 18 th century.

During this period, there was increased food and water supply in most regions of the world especially in the West. The revolution enhanced the improvement of the living standards of the people hence the decrease in death rates. The third stage is the part of the model whereby the population moves towards stability whereby, the birth rates decrease as opposed to the second stage. Owing to this, both the birth and death rates are low at this stage.

With respect to modernization, this stage came into being towards the end of the 19 th century. During this period, technological advancements brought in birth control systems. Women in the society also became educated coupled with propagated urbanization amongst other changes. In the fourth stage, populations attain stability.

One of the cities in America that exhibited almost all these stages is Chicago. Up to the 18 th century, Chicago’s population was in the first stage of the demography model. In the mid-nineteenth century, the population increased tremendously. The birth rate then was 50 births per 1000 people per year.

This is approximately triple the rate of live births exhibited today in Chicago. The current rate is 14-15 live births per 1000 people per year with decreased death rates (Nugent 6). For instance, tuberculosis mortality exhibited a significant drop; between 1892 and 1920, the prevalence of tuberculosis and associated deaths reduced by half. This was due to the improvements in the health sector that included vaccinations, provision of hygiene lessons in schools and pasteurizations.

The demography transition theory helps in explaining the transitions of populations. It asserts that a population goes through four major stages based on the level of modernization. Different populations in the world are at different stages depending on their level of industrialization and civilization.

Cadwell, John, and Schindlmayr, Thomas. Demographic Transition Theory .

Netherlands: Springer, 2006.

Nugent, Walter. “Demography.” Chicago as a modern World City 2.1(2004): 6-8.

  • Chicago (A-D)
  • Chicago (N-B)

IvyPanda. (2019, December 2). Demographic Transition Theory. https://ivypanda.com/essays/demographic-transition-theory/

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1. IvyPanda . "Demographic Transition Theory." December 2, 2019. https://ivypanda.com/essays/demographic-transition-theory/.

Bibliography

IvyPanda . "Demographic Transition Theory." December 2, 2019. https://ivypanda.com/essays/demographic-transition-theory/.

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17.2E: Demographic Transition Theory

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Learning Objectives

  • Break down the demographic transition model/theory into five recognizable stages based on how countries reach industrialization

Whether you believe that we are headed for environmental disaster and the end of human existence as we know it, or you think people will always adapt to changing circumstances, we can see clear patterns in population growth. Societies develop along a predictable continuum as they evolve from unindustrialized to postindustrial. Demographic transition theory (Caldwell and Caldwell 2006) suggests that future population growth will develop along a predictable four- or five-stage model.

In stage one, pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates are high and roughly in balance. An example of this stage is the United States in the 1800s. All human populations are believed to have had this balance until the late 18th century, when this balance ended in Western Europe. In fact, growth rates were less than 0.05% at least since the Agricultural Revolution over 10,000 years ago.

Population growth is typically very slow in this stage, because the society is constrained by the available food supply; therefore, unless the society develops new technologies to increase food production (e.g. discovers new sources of food or achieves higher crop yields), any fluctuations in birth rates are soon matched by death rates.

In stage two, that of a developing country, the death rates drop rapidly due to improvements in food supply and sanitation, which increase life spans and reduce disease. Afghanistan is currently in this stage.

The improvements specific to food supply typically include selective breeding and crop rotation and farming techniques. Other improvements generally include access to technology, basic healthcare, and education. For example, numerous improvements in public health reduce mortality, especially childhood mortality. Prior to the mid-20th century, these improvements in public health were primarily in the areas of food handling, water supply, sewage, and personal hygiene. Another variable often cited is the increase in female literacy combined with public health education programs which emerged in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

In Europe, the death rate decline started in the late 18th century in northwestern Europe and spread to the south and east over approximately the next 100 years. Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this produces an imbalance, and the countries in this stage experience a large increase in population.

In stage three, birth rates fall. Mexico’s population is at this stage. Birth rates decrease due to various fertility factors such as access to contraception, increases in wages, urbanization, a reduction in subsistence agriculture, an increase in the status and education of women, a reduction in the value of children’s work, an increase in parental investment in the education of children and other social changes. Population growth begins to level off. The birth rate decline in developed countries started in the late 19th century in northern Europe.

While improvements in contraception do play a role in birth rate decline, it should be noted that contraceptives were not generally available nor widely used in the 19th century and as a result likely did not play a significant role in the decline then.

It is important to note that birth rate decline is caused also by a transition in values; not just because of the availability of contraceptives.

During stage four there are both low birth rates and low death rates. Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many industries that rely on population growth. Sweden is considered to currently be in Stage 4. As the large group born during stage two ages, it creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries. By the late 20th century, birth rates and death rates in developed countries leveled off at lower rates.

Stage 5 (Debated)

Some scholars delineate a separate fifth stage of below-replacement fertility levels. Others hypothesize a different stage five involving an increase in fertility. The United Nations Population Fund (2008) categorizes nations as high-fertility, intermediate-fertility, or low-fertility. The United Nations (UN) anticipates the population growth will triple between 2011 and 2100 in high-fertility countries, which are currently concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. For countries with intermediate fertility rates (the United States, India, and Mexico all fall into this category), growth is expected to be about 26 percent. And low-fertility countries like China, Australia, and most of Europe will actually see population declines of approximately 20 percent.

image

Conclusions

As with all models, this is an idealized picture of population change in these countries. The model is a generalization that applies to these countries as a group and may not accurately describe all individual cases. The extent to which it applies to less-developed societies today remains to be seen. Many countries such as China, Brazil and Thailand have passed through the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) very quickly due to fast social and economic change. Some countries, particularly African countries, appear to be stalled in the second stage due to stagnant development and the effect of AIDS.

  • Demographic transition theory suggests that populations grow along a predictable five-stage model.
  • In stage 1, pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates are high and roughly in balance, and population growth is typically very slow and constrained by the available food supply.
  • In stage 2, that of a developing country, the death rates drop rapidly due to improvements in food supply and sanitation, which increase life spans and reduce disease.
  • In stage 3, birth rates fall due to access to contraception, increases in wages, urbanization, increase in the status and education of women, and increase in investment in education. Population growth begins to level off.
  • In stage 4, birth rates and death rates are both low. The large group born during stage two ages and creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population.
  • In stage 5 (only some theorists acknowledge this stage—others recognize only four), fertility rates transition to either below-replacement or above-replacement.
  • demographic transition theory : Describes four stages of population growth, following patterns that connect birth and death rates with stages of industrial development.

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  • 20.1 Demography and Population
  • Introduction
  • 1.1 What Is Sociology?
  • 1.2 The History of Sociology
  • 1.3 Theoretical Perspectives in Sociology
  • 1.4 Why Study Sociology?
  • Section Summary
  • Section Quiz
  • Short Answer
  • Further Research
  • 2.1 Approaches to Sociological Research
  • 2.2 Research Methods
  • 2.3 Ethical Concerns
  • 3.1 What Is Culture?
  • 3.2 Elements of Culture
  • 3.3 High, Low, Pop, Sub, Counter-culture and Cultural Change
  • 3.4 Theoretical Perspectives on Culture
  • 4.1 Types of Societies
  • 4.2 Theoretical Perspectives on Society
  • 4.3 Social Constructions of Reality
  • 5.1 Theories of Self-Development
  • 5.2 Why Socialization Matters
  • 5.3 Agents of Socialization
  • 5.4 Socialization Across the Life Course
  • 6.1 Types of Groups
  • 6.2 Group Size and Structure
  • 6.3 Formal Organizations
  • 7.1 Deviance and Control
  • 7.2 Theoretical Perspectives on Deviance and Crime
  • 7.3 Crime and the Law
  • 8.1 Technology Today
  • 8.2 Media and Technology in Society
  • 8.3 Global Implications of Media and Technology
  • 8.4 Theoretical Perspectives on Media and Technology
  • 9.1 What Is Social Stratification?
  • 9.2 Social Stratification and Mobility in the United States
  • 9.3 Global Stratification and Inequality
  • 9.4 Theoretical Perspectives on Social Stratification
  • 10.1 Global Stratification and Classification
  • 10.2 Global Wealth and Poverty
  • 10.3 Theoretical Perspectives on Global Stratification
  • 11.1 Racial, Ethnic, and Minority Groups
  • 11.2 Theoretical Perspectives on Race and Ethnicity
  • 11.3 Prejudice, Discrimination, and Racism
  • 11.4 Intergroup Relationships
  • 11.5 Race and Ethnicity in the United States
  • 12.1 Sex, Gender, Identity, and Expression
  • 12.2 Gender and Gender Inequality
  • 12.3 Sexuality
  • 13.1 Who Are the Elderly? Aging in Society
  • 13.2 The Process of Aging
  • 13.3 Challenges Facing the Elderly
  • 13.4 Theoretical Perspectives on Aging
  • 14.1 What Is Marriage? What Is a Family?
  • 14.2 Variations in Family Life
  • 14.3 Challenges Families Face
  • 15.1 The Sociological Approach to Religion
  • 15.2 World Religions
  • 15.3 Religion in the United States
  • 16.1 Education around the World
  • 16.2 Theoretical Perspectives on Education
  • 16.3 Issues in Education
  • 17.1 Power and Authority
  • 17.2 Forms of Government
  • 17.3 Politics in the United States
  • 17.4 Theoretical Perspectives on Government and Power
  • Introduction to Work and the Economy
  • 18.1 Economic Systems
  • 18.2 Globalization and the Economy
  • 18.3 Work in the United States
  • 19.1 The Social Construction of Health
  • 19.2 Global Health
  • 19.3 Health in the United States
  • 19.4 Comparative Health and Medicine
  • 19.5 Theoretical Perspectives on Health and Medicine
  • 20.2 Urbanization
  • 20.3 The Environment and Society
  • Introduction to Social Movements and Social Change
  • 21.1 Collective Behavior
  • 21.2 Social Movements
  • 21.3 Social Change

Learning Objectives

By the end of this section, you should be able to:

  • Explain demographic measurements like fertility and mortality rates
  • Describe a variety of demographic theories, such as Malthusian, cornucopian, zero population growth, and demographic transition theories
  • Evaluate current population trends and patterns
  • Differentiate between an internally displaced person, an asylum-seeker, and a refugee

Between 2011 and 2012, we reached a population milestone of 7 billion humans on the earth’s surface. The rapidity with which this happened demonstrated an exponential increase from the time it took to grow from 5 billion to 6 billion people. In short, the planet is filling up. We'll have 8 billion people in this decade. While the population is increasing overall, there are certain countries and regions where growth is slowing. Relocation and migration also change the makeup and quantity of people in an area. In order to properly understand these dynamics and make decisions regarding them, we turn to demography , or the study of populations. Three critical aspects of demography are fertility, mortality, and migration.

The fertility rate of a society is a measure noting the number of children born. The fertility number is generally lower than the fecundity number, which measures the potential number of children that could be born to women of childbearing age. Sociologists measure fertility using the crude birthrate (the number of live births per 1,000 people per year). Just as fertility measures childbearing, the mortality rate is a measure of the number of people who die. The crude death rate is a number derived from the number of deaths per 1,000 people per year. When analyzed together, fertility and mortality rates help researchers understand the overall growth occurring in a population.

Another key element in studying populations is the movement of people into and out of an area. Migration may take the form of immigration, which describes movement into an area to take up permanent residence, or emigration, which refers to movement out of an area to another place of permanent residence. Migration might be voluntary (as when college students study abroad), involuntary (as when Syrians evacuated war-torn areas), or forced (as when many Native American tribes were removed from the lands they’d lived in for generations).

Big Picture

Mass migration crises.

At least once during each of the last three Presidential administrations, the United States has faced a crisis at its southern border. While images of children in crowded holding areas, covered in piles of shiny plastic emergency blankets, were often associated with the Trump Presidency, Presidents Obama and Biden saw children in the same conditions. The holding facilities, described as cages by some and often referred to as “perreras” (dog kennels) or “hieleras” (ice boxes) by the migrating people, are meant to be temporary stopovers while people await hearings or related refugee processes. But during a number of occasions, the number of people crossing the border was so large – including, at times, tens of thousands of children – that the system became overwhelmed. The conditions are deplorable. The outcomes are uncertain. But the people cross the border anyway.

How did we get here? Bipartisan legislation passed in 2008 guarantees unaccompanied minors a hearing with an immigration judge where they may request asylum based on a “credible” fear of persecution or torture (U.S. Congress 2008). In some cases, these children are looking for relatives and can be placed with family while awaiting a hearing on their immigration status; in other cases, they become involved with the foster system or are placed in of the 170 housing facilities run by nonprofit or for-profit groups. Finally, for people who turn 18 while still in the process, they may be transferred to detention centers, sometimes on their birthday (Montoya-Galvez 2021). Many people in America were either accepting or unaware of these policies and situations until crises occurred in 2014 and 2018-19. At those points of incredible influxes of migrant children, border control, refugee services, and advocacy organizations were overwhelmed by the surge. Both the Obama and Trump administrations pushed for changes in laws or guidelines for enforcement (Gomez 2014 and Kanno-Youngs 2020).

The Obama administration sought to make the decision process faster. In 2014, over 50,000 unaccompanied minors were taken into custody, creating the backlog discussed above. The Trump administration sought to discourage immigration through policies such as separating parents and children who arrived together. The policy was decried by members of Trump's own party, as well as many other organizations, and was eventually dealt a series of legal blows before the President reversed it. Later investigations determined that hundreds, if not thousands, of children remained separated from their parents for extended periods of time (Spagat 2019).

While the situations at the border are extremely threatening to children's health and safety, people and policymakers in the United States are divided on how to address the situation. In many cases, these children are fleeing various kinds of violence and extreme poverty. The U.S. government has repeatedly indicated that the best way to avoid these crises is to address those conditions in the migrants' home countries. But even with financial aid for those nations and pressure on their governments to crack down on illegal activity, it is unlikely that the situation will change quickly or consistently. The Biden administration may not be the last to face a surge of immigrant children at its border.

A functional perspective theorist might focus on the dysfunctions caused by the sudden influx of underage asylum seekers, while a conflict perspective theorist might look at the way social stratification influences how the members of a developed country are treating the lower-status migrants from less-developed countries in Latin America. An interactionist theorist might see significance in the attitude of those protesting the presence of migrant children. Which theoretical perspective makes the most sense to you?

Population Growth

Changing fertility, mortality, and migration rates make up the total population composition , a snapshot of the demographic profile of a population. This number can be measured for societies, nations, world regions, or other groups. The population composition includes the sex ratio , the number of men for every hundred women, as well as the population pyramid , a picture of population distribution by sex and age ( Figure 20.5 ).

Comparing the three countries in Table 20.1 reveals that there are more men than women in Afghanistan and Finland, whereas the reverse is true in the United States. Afghanistan also has significantly higher fertility and mortality rates than either of the other two countries. In all three cases, the fertility rates have dropped in recent years, but Afghanistan's drop (from 5.4 children per woman to 4.4) will likely be the most impactful (World Bank 2019). Do these statistics surprise you? How do you think the population makeup affects the political climate and economics of the different countries?

Demographic Theories

Sociologists have long looked at population issues as central to understanding human interactions. Below we will look at four theories about population that inform sociological thought: Malthusian, zero population growth, cornucopian, and demographic transition theories.

Malthusian Theory

Thomas Malthus (1766–1834) was an English clergyman who made dire predictions about earth’s ability to sustain its growing population. According to Malthusian theory , three factors would control human population that exceeded the earth’s carrying capacity , or how many people can live in a given area considering the amount of available resources. Malthus identified these factors as war, famine, and disease (Malthus 1798). He termed them “positive checks” because they increase mortality rates, thus keeping the population in check. They are countered by “preventive checks,” which also control the population but by reducing fertility rates; preventive checks include birth control and celibacy. Thinking practically, Malthus saw that people could produce only so much food in a given year, yet the population was increasing at an exponential rate. Eventually, he thought people would run out of food and begin to starve. They would go to war over increasingly scarce resources and reduce the population to a manageable level, and then the cycle would begin anew.

Of course, this has not exactly happened. The human population has continued to grow long past Malthus’s predictions. So what happened? Why didn’t we die off? There are three reasons sociologists believe we are continuing to expand the population of our planet. First, technological increases in food production have increased both the amount and quality of calories we can produce per person. Second, human ingenuity has developed new medicine to curtail death from disease. Finally, the development and widespread use of contraception and other forms of family planning have decreased the speed at which our population increases. But what about the future? Some still believe Malthus was correct and that ample resources to support the earth’s population will soon run out.

Zero Population Growth

A neo-Malthusian researcher named Paul Ehrlich brought Malthus’s predictions into the twentieth century. However, according to Ehrlich, it is the environment, not specifically the food supply, that will play a crucial role in the continued health of the planet’s population (Ehrlich 1968). Ehrlich's ideas suggest that the human population is moving rapidly toward complete environmental collapse, as privileged people use up or pollute a number of environmental resources such as water and air. He advocated for a goal of zero population growth (ZPG), in which the number of people entering a population through birth or immigration is equal to the number of people leaving it via death or emigration. While support for this concept is mixed, it is still considered a possible solution to global overpopulation.

Cornucopian Theory

Of course, some theories are less focused on the pessimistic hypothesis that the world’s population will meet a detrimental challenge to sustaining itself. Cornucopian theory scoffs at the idea of humans wiping themselves out; it asserts that human ingenuity can resolve any environmental or social issues that develop. As an example, it points to the issue of food supply. If we need more food, the theory contends, agricultural scientists will figure out how to grow it, as they have already been doing for centuries. After all, in this perspective, human ingenuity has been up to the task for thousands of years and there is no reason for that pattern not to continue (Simon 1981).

Demographic Transition Theory

Whether you believe that we are headed for environmental disaster and the end of human existence as we know it, or you think people will always adapt to changing circumstances, we can see clear patterns in population growth. Societies develop along a predictable continuum as they evolve from unindustrialized to postindustrial. Demographic transition theory (Caldwell and Caldwell 2006) suggests that future population growth will develop along a predictable four-stage model.

In Stage 1, birth, death, and infant mortality rates are all high, while life expectancy is short. An example of this stage is the 1800s in the United States. As countries begin to industrialize, they enter Stage 2, where birth rates are higher while infant mortality and the death rates drop. Life expectancy also increases. Afghanistan is currently in this stage. Stage 3 occurs once a society is thoroughly industrialized; birth rates decline, while life expectancy continues to increase. Death rates continue to decrease. Mexico’s population is at this stage. In the final phase, Stage 4, we see the postindustrial era of a society. Birth and death rates are low, people are healthier and live longer, and society enters a phase of population stability. Overall population may even decline. For example, Sweden is considered to be in Stage 4.

The United Nations Population Fund (2008) categorizes nations as high fertility, intermediate fertility, or low fertility. The United Nations (UN) anticipates the population growth will triple between 2011 and 2100 in high-fertility countries, which are currently concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. For countries with intermediate fertility rates (the United States, India, and Mexico all fall into this category), growth is expected to be about 26 percent. And low-fertility countries like China, Australia, and most of Europe will actually see population declines of approximately 20 percent. The graphs below illustrate this trend.

Changes in U.S. Immigration Patterns and Attitudes

Worldwide patterns of migration have changed, though the United States remains the most popular destination. From 1990 to 2013, the number of migrants living in the United States increased from one in six to one in five (The Pew Research Center 2013). Overall, the United States is home to about 45 million foreign-born people, while only about 3 million U.S. citizens lived abroad. Of foreign-born citizens emigrating to the United States, 55 percent originated in Latin America and the Caribbean. However, over the past few years, more people from Asian countries have entered than from Latin American ones (Budiman 2020).

While there are more foreign-born people residing in the United States legally, as of 2017 about 10.5 million resided here without legal status (Budiman 2020). Most immigrants in the U.S. live in either Texas, Florida, or California.

Even before policy changes and COVID-19 affected refugee admittance, a relatively small number of people formally entered the country as refugees. In 2016, about 85,000 refugees were admitted to the U.S. (of over one million total immigrants), with the largest portion arriving from the Democratic Republic of Congo; in 2020, the number of refugees was reduced to 18,000.

Most citizens agree that our national immigration policies are need adjustment. More than two-thirds (69 percent) of those in a recent national survey believed illegal immigrants should have a path to citizenship provided they meet other requirements, such as paying taxes and passing a background check. Even more people (72 percent) supported passing a DREAM Act, which would allow people who immigrated as children to earn citizenship. In both parts of the survey, majorities of both Republicans and Democrats as well as independents supported the pathway to citizenship (Vox and Data for Progress 2021).

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Demographic transition: Why is rapid population growth a temporary phenomenon?

Death rates fall first, then fertility rates, and this leads to a slowdown of population growth..

Population growth is determined by births and deaths. Every country has seen very substantial changes in both: mortality and fertility rates have fallen across the world.

But declining mortality rates and declining fertility rates alone do not explain why populations grow. If these changes happened at the same time, the size of the population would not increase. What is crucial is the timing at which mortality and fertility changes.

The model that explains why countries go through a period of rapid population growth is called the ‘demographic transition’. It is shown in the schematic figure. It is a beautifully simple model that describes the observed pattern in countries around the world and is one of the great insights of demography. 1

As the graphic below shows, the demographic transition is a sequence of five stages:

  • Stage 1 – high mortality and high birth rates : In the past birth rates were high, but since the mortality rates were also high we observe no or only very small population growth. This describes the reality through most of our history. Societies around the world remained in stage 1 for many millennia as the long-run data on extremely slow population growth makes clear. At this stage the population pyramid is broad at the base as many children are born. But since the mortality rate is high across all ages – and in particular for children – the pyramid gets much narrower towards the top.
  • Stage 2 – mortality falls, but birth rates are still high: In the second phase the health of the population slowly starts to improve and the mortality rate starts to fall. Since the health of the population has already improved, but fertility still remains as high as before, this is the stage of the transition at which the size of the population starts to grow rapidly. Historically it is the exceptional time at which the extended family with many (surviving) children is common.
  • Stage 3 – mortality is low and birth rates begin to fall: At this stage the birth rate starts to fall and as a consequence the rate at which the population grows begins to decline as well. In our topic page on fertility rates we discuss in detail why fertility rates declined. But to summarize the main points: When the mortality of children is not as high as it once was, parents adapt to the healthier environment and choose to have fewer children; the economy is undergoing structural changes that makes children less economically valuable; and as women gain more power within society and within partnerships they tend on average to have fewer children than before.
  • Stage 4 – mortality and birth rates are low: Rapid population growth comes to an end in stage 4. At this stage the birth rate falls to a similar level as the already low mortality rate. The population pyramid is now box shaped; as the mortality rate at young ages is now very low the younger cohorts are now very similar in size and only at an old age the size of cohorts get smaller rapidly.
  • Stage 5 – the future of population growth will be determined by what is happening to fertility rates: The demographic transition describes changes over the course of socio-economic modernization. What happens at a very high level of development is not a question we can answer with certainty since only few societies have reached this stage. If fertility rates are rising again at very high levels of development — as the research by demographers Mikko Myrskylä, Hans-Peter Kohler, and Francesco Billari suggests — then population sizes might stabilize or even increase. However if the fertility rate stays below 2 children per woman then we will see a decline of the population size in the long run.

Timeline chart that shows 5 stages of the demographic transition. Birth and death rates are plotted on the y-axis. Death rates first fall, and are later followed by a decline in birth rates.

Empirical evidence for the demographic transition

Rapid population growth is a temporary phenomenon.

If fertility fell in lockstep with mortality we would not have seen an increase in the population at all. The demographic transition works through the asynchronous timing of the two fundamental demographic changes: The decline in the death rate is followed by the decline in birth rates.

This decline in the death rate followed by a decline in the birth rate is something we observe with great regularity and is largely independent of the culture or religion of the population.

The chart presents the empirical evidence for the demographic transition for five very different countries in Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia. In all countries, we observed the pattern described by the demographic transition, first a decline in mortality that starts the population boom and then a decline in fertility which brings the population boom to an end. The population boom is a temporary event.

In the past, the size of the population was stagnant because of high mortality. Now country after country are moving into a world in which the population is stagnant because of low fertility.

The chart shows the demographic transition (birth and death rates) in Germany, Sweden, Chile, Mauritius, and China.

England and Wales’s demographic transition

Perhaps the longest available view of the demographic transition comes from data for England and Wales.

In 1981, Anthony Wrigley and Roger Schofield published a major research project analyzing English parish registers—a unique source that allowed them to trace demographic changes for the three centuries prior to state records. 2

According to the researchers, “England is exceptionally fortunate in having several thousand parish registers that begin before 1600”; collectively, with their early start and breadth of coverage, these registers form an excellent resource. As far as we know, there is no comparable data for any other country over such a long period.

The chart shows the birth and death rates in England and Wales over the span of nearly 500 years. It stitches together Wrigley and Schofield’s data for the years from 1541 to 1861 with two other sources up to 2015.

As we can see, a growing gap opens up between the birth and death rate after 1750. During this period the population begins to increase rapidly in size. Around the 1870s, we begin to see the third stage of the demographic transition. As the birth rate starts to follow the death rate’s decline, that gap between the two starts to shrink, slowing down the rate of population growth.

Sweden’s demographic transition

In the next visualization we take a closer look at Sweden’s demographic transition. The country’s long history of population recordkeeping – starting in 1749 with their original statistical office, ‘the Tabellverket’ (Office of Tables) – makes it a particularly interesting case study of the mechanisms driving population change.

Statistics Sweden, the successor of the Tabellverket, has published data on both deaths and births since record keeping began more than 250 years ago. These records suggest that around the year 1800, the Swedish death rate started falling, mainly due to improvements in health and living standards, especially for children. 3

Yet while death rates were falling, birth rates remained at a constant pre-modern level until the 1860s. During this period and up until the first half of the 20th century, there was a sustained gap between the frequency of deaths and the frequency of births. It was because of this gap that the Swedish population increased.

Demographic transitions across the world

Today, different countries find themselves in different stages of the demographic transition. In the chart we see birth rates plotted against death rates: the two variables that determine the demographic transition.

Most high-income countries have reached stage four and have low birth and death rates.

For a history and literature review of the theory’s development, see: Kirk, Dudley. “ Demographic transition theory .” Population studies 50.3 (1996): 361-387.

Wrigley, E. A., Schofield, R. S., & Schofield, R. (1989). The population history of England 1541-1871. Cambridge University Press.

Before 1800 more than 20% of Swedish babies died before they reached their first birthday, and of those who survived, another 20% died before their 10th birthday (see Croix, Lindh, and Malmberg (2009), Demographic change and economic growth in Sweden: 1750–2050 . In Journal of Macroeconomics, 31, 1, 132–148).

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essay on demographic transition theory

What is the Demographic Transition Model?

By Drew Grover | October 13, 2014

This is post 1 of 6 in a series about the Demographic Transition Model – a fundamental concept in population education, which is covered in Social Studies courses, most notably AP Human Geography.

Beginning in the late 1700s, something remarkable happened: death rates declined. With new technologies in agriculture and production, and advancements in health and sanitation, a greater number of people lived through their adolescent years, increasing the average life expectancy and creating a new trajectory for population growth. This sudden change created a shift in understanding the correlation between birth and death rates, which up to that point had both been relatively equal, regardless of location. Over the past 300 years, population demographics have continued to evolve as a result of the relationship between the birth and death rates within a country. The observation and documentation of this global phenomenon has produced a model, the Demographic Transition Model , which helps explain and make sense of changes in population demographics. Using the Demographic Transition Model, demographers can better understand a country’s current population growth based on its placement within one of five stages and then pass on that data to be used for addressing economic and social policies within a country and across nations.

Demographic Transition Model diagram

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is based on historical population trends of two demographic characteristics – birth rate and death rate   – to suggest that a country’s total population growth rate cycles through stages as that country develops economically. Each stage is characterized by a specific relationship between birth rate (number of annual births per one thousand people) and death rate (number of annual deaths per one thousand people). As these rates change in relation to each other, their produced impact greatly affects a country’s total population. Within the model, a country will progress over time from one stage to the next as certain social and economic forces act upon the birth and death rates. Every country can be placed within the DTM, but not every stage of the model has a country that meets its specific definition. For example, there are currently no countries in Stage 1, nor are there any countries in Stage 5, but the potential is there for movement in the future.

What are the stages of the Demographic Transition Model?

In Stage 1 , which applied to most of the world before the Industrial Revolution, both birth rates and death rates are high. As a result, population size remains fairly constant but can have major swings with events such as wars or pandemics. In Stage 2 , the introduction of modern medicine lowers death rates, especially among children, while birth rates remain high; the result is rapid population growth. Many of the least developed countries today are in Stage 2. In Stage 3 , birth rates gradually decrease, usually as a result of improved economic conditions, an increase in women’s status, and access to contraception. Population growth continues, but at a lower rate. Most developing countries are in Stage 3. In Stage 4 , birth and death rates are both low, stabilizing the population. These countries tend to have stronger economies, higher levels of education, better healthcare, a higher proportion of working women, and a fertility rate hovering around two children per woman. Most developed countries are in Stage 4. A possible Stage 5 would include countries in which fertility rates have fallen significantly below replacement level (2 children) and the elderly population is greater than the youthful population.

Limitations of the Demographic Transition Model

Like any model, there will be outliers and exceptions to the rule and the Demographic Transition Model is no different. Additionally, there are limitations of the demographic transition model – things the DTM cannot reveal: the impact of other demographic variables such as migration, are not considered, nor does the model predict how long a country will be in each stage. But even so, the relationship between birth rate and death rate is an important concept when discussing population and any patterns, such as those provided by the DTM, that aid in understanding are helpful.

Demographic Transition Model Case Studies

Over a series of five posts we will explain each stage of the Demographic Transition Model in depth and provide a case study for stages when there is a country that currently fits its parameters.

Demographic Transition Model blog series: Overview ,  Stage 1 , Stage 2 , Stage 3 , Stage 4 , Stage 5

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Demographic Transition Theory pp 301–320 Cite as

Demographic Theory: a Long View

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Demographic theory has been largely transformed over the last halfcentury from grand theory to short-term theory, often endowed with such immediacy as to so limit our vision of the future that even population policymaking is made difficult. Demographic theorists lost their nerve as the globalization of declines in mortality and fertility proceeded much more rapidly than they had anticipated and as the “baby boom” in a number of developed countries quelled expectations of continuing fertility decline. 2 There is a parallel here to the undermining of Malthusian theory by dramatic increases in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries in food production, a phenomenon explained by the Industrial Revolution’s effects on agricultural and transport technology. Focusing on the leading countries in the demographic transition, this essay will argue that far too little attention has been paid to the nature of the economic and related social revolutions of our age and that our theoretical perspectives pay too little attention to ultimate constraints on population growth.

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Demography is a science short on theory, rich in quantification. Nevertheless, demography has produced one of the best documented generalizations in the social sciences: the demographic transition. What is the demographic transition? Stripped to its essentials it is the theory that societies progress from a pre-modern regime of high fertility and high mortality to a post-modern regime of low fertility and low mortality. The cause of the transition has been sought in the reduction of the death rate by controlling epidemic and contagious diseases. Then, with modernization, children become more costly. Cultural changes weaken the importance of children. The increasing empowerment of women to make their own reproductive decisions leads to smaller families. Thus there is a change in values, emphasizing the quality of children rather than their quantity. In short, the fertility transition is becoming universal phenomenon, in which every country may be placed on a continuum of progress in the transition.

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Essay on theory of demographic transition.

essay on demographic transition theory

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Essay on Theory of Demographic Transition!

Theory of Demographic Transition is a theory that throws light on changes in birth rate and death rate and consequently growth rate of population. Along with the economic development, tendendes of birth rate and death rate are different. Because of it, growth rate of population is also different.

This theory has been propounded by W. S. Thompson and F.W. Notestein. They have divided the process of transition period of population into three stages.

The three stages of the theory of demographic transition are:

Stage 1: High Birth Rate and High Death Rate:

In this stage, an economy is primitive and backward. Agriculture is the main occupation, which provides low level of income to people. The standard of living is very poor and people do not even have basic amenities of life. There is mass-poverty.

Education opportunities are limited. People are narrow-minded. Widespread superstitions prevail. Family planning does not exist and medical facilities are negligible. Also, science and technology are not well developed. Population growth rate is low and. stable since high birth rate matches high death rate.

Stage 2: Sharp Decline in Death Rate:

This is the stage of rapid growth of population. It is due sharp decline in the death rate, causes of which are increase in per capita income, good nutrition, control of epidemics, better medical facilities, rise in education, better housing facilities and better living conditions. Although birth rate falls, yet it is very high. Population grows at an alarming rate. It is called the stage of population explosion. India has been experiencing this stage for more than eight decades.

Stage 3: Stage of Low Birth Rate and Low Death Rate:

This is the stage of fast industrialisation and urbanisation. Science and technology grows at a fast rate. Birth rate is very low because education is widespread. Cost of living is high, housing problem exists there are very few jobs for children and women also seek employment.

Death rate is low because of better medical facilities. The growth rate of population is very low. According to Michael Todaro, in his book Economic Development in the Third World, third stage is reached when the forces and influences of modernisation and economic development cause fertility to decline so that eventually falling birth Tate converge with lower death rate leaving little or no population growth.

Related Articles:

  • Demographic Transition Theory: 4 Main Stages
  • Theories of Population: Malthus Theory, Marx’s Theory and Theory of Demographic Transition

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Human population growth and the demographic transition

The world and most regions and countries are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the huge expansion of human numbers: four billion have been added since 1950. Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions. Other demographic processes are also undergoing extraordinary change: women's fertility has dropped rapidly and life expectancy has risen to new highs. Past trends in fertility and mortality have led to very young populations in high fertility countries in the developing world and to increasingly older populations in the developed world. Contemporary societies are now at very different stages of their demographic transitions. This paper summarizes key trends in population size, fertility and mortality, and age structures during these transitions. The focus is on the century from 1950 to 2050, which covers the period of most rapid global demographic transformation.

1. Introduction

After centuries of very slow and uneven growth, the world population reached one billion in 1800. The modern expansion of human numbers started then, rising at a slow but more steady pace over the next 150 years to 2.5 billion in 1950. During the second half of the twentieth century, however, growth rates accelerated to historically unprecedented levels. As a result, world population more than doubled to 6.5 billion in 2005 (United Nations 1962 , 1973 , 2007 ). This population expansion is expected to continue for several more decades before peaking near 10 billion later in the twenty-first century. Around 2070, the world's population will be 10 times larger than in 1800.

The recent period of very rapid demographic change in most countries around the world is characteristic of the central phases of a secular process called the demographic transition . Over the course of this transition, declines in birth rates followed by declines in death rates bring about an era of rapid population growth. This transition usually accompanies the development process that transforms an agricultural society into an industrial one. Before the transition's onset, population growth (which equals the difference between the birth and death rate in the absence of migration) is near zero as high death rates more or less offset the high birth rates typical of agrarian societies before the industrial revolution. Population growth is again near zero after the completion of the transition as birth and death rates both reach low levels in the most developed societies. During the intervening transition period, rapid demographic change occurs, characterized by two distinct phases. During the first phase, the population growth rate rises as the death rate declines while the birth rate remains high. In the second phase, the growth rate declines (but remains positive) due to a decline in the birth rate. The entire transition typically takes more than a century to complete and ends with a much larger population size.

The plot of world population size over time in figure 1 (top solid line) shows the typical S-shaped pattern of estimated and projected population size over the course of the transition. Population growth accelerated for most of the twentieth century reaching the transition's midpoint in the 1980s and has recently begun to decelerate slightly. Today, we are still on the steepest part of this growth curve with additions to world population exceeding 75 million per year between 1971 and 2016.

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Population size estimates, 1900–2005 and projections 2005–2050. High, medium and low variants.

Contemporary societies are at very different stages of their demographic transitions. Key trends in population size, fertility and mortality during these transitions are summarized below. The focus is on the century from 1950 to 2050, covering the period of most rapid global demographic change. The main source of data is the United Nation's 2006 world population assessment, which provides estimates for 1950–2005 and projections from 2005 to 2050 ( United Nations 2007 ).

2. Future population trends

The projected rise in world population to 9.2 billion in 2050 represents an increase of 2.7 billion over the 2005 population of 6.5 billion. Nearly all of this future growth will occur in the ‘South’—i.e. Africa, Asia (excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand), and Latin America—where population size is projected to increase from 5.3 to 7.9 billion between 2005 and 2050 ( table 1 ). In contrast, in the ‘North’ (Europe, Northern America, Japan and Australia/New Zealand), population size is forecast to remain virtually stable, growing slightly from 1.22 to 1.25 billion between 2005 and 2050. The difference in trends between these two world regions reflects the later stage of the transition in the North compared with the South.

Table 1.

Population estimates (1950–2005) and projections (2005–2050), by region. Adapted from United Nations (2007) .

The global demographic transition began in the nineteenth century in the now economically developed parts of the world (the North) with declines in death rates. Large reductions in birth rates followed in the early part of the twentieth century. These transitions are now more or less complete. But, as shown in table 1 , trends for the two principal regions in the North are expected to diverge between 2005 and 2050: an increase from 0.33 to 0.45 billion in Northern America, and a decline from 0.73 to 0.66 billion in Europe. In fact, several countries in Europe (e.g. Russia) and East Asia (e.g. Japan) face significant population declines as birth rates have fallen below death rates.

The demographic transitions in Africa, Asia and Latin America started later and are still underway. In 2005, Asia had a population of 3.94 billion, more than half of the world total, and its population is expected to grow by 34 per cent to 5.27 billion by 2050. Africa, with 0.92 billion inhabitants in 2005, is likely to experience by far the most rapid relative expansion, more than doubling to 2.0 billion by 2050. Latin America, with 0.56 billion in 2005, is the smallest of the regions of the South; its projected growth trend is similar to that of Asia.

It may seem surprising that population growth continues at a rapid pace in sub-Saharan Africa, where the AIDS epidemic is most severe. This epidemic has indeed caused many deaths, but population growth continues because the epidemic is no longer expanding and the birth rate is expected to remain higher than the elevated death rate in the future ( UNAIDS 2007 ; Bongaarts et al . 2008 ). The epidemic's demographic impact can be assessed by comparing the standard UN population projection (which includes the epidemic's effect) with a separate hypothetical projection in which AIDS mortality is excluded ( United Nations 2007 ). In sub-Saharan Africa, the former projects a 2050 population of 1.76 billion and the latter a population of 1.95 billion. The difference of 0.2 billion in 2050 between these projections with and without the epidemic is due to deaths from AIDS as well as the absence of the descendents from people who died from AIDS. According to these projections, the population of sub-Saharan Africa will grow by one billion between 2005 and 2050 despite the substantial impact of the AIDS epidemic. In fact, no country is expected to see a decline in its population size between 2005 and 2050 due to high AIDS mortality. Most populations in sub-Saharan Africa will more than double in size, several will triple and Niger is expected to quadruple by 2050 ( United Nations 2007 ).

Transitions in the developing world have generally produced more rapid population growth rates in mid-transition than historically observed in the North. In some developing countries (e.g. Kenya and Uganda), peak growth rates approached four per cent per year in recent decades (implying a doubling of population size in two decades), levels that were very rarely observed in developed countries except with massive immigration. Two factors account for this very rapid expansion of population in these still largely traditional societies: the spread of medical technology (e.g. immunization, antibiotics) after World War II, which led to extremely rapid declines in death rates, and a lag in declines in birth rates.

Population sizes for the 10 largest countries in 2005 and in 2050 are presented in table 2 . In 2005, China (1.31 billion) and India (1.13 billion) were by far the largest countries, together accounting for nearly half the South's total. The top 10 include six Asian countries and only one country each in Latin America and Africa. By 2050, the ranking is expected to have shifted substantially, with India's population exceeding China's, and with Ethiopia and DR Congo rising to the top 10, replacing Japan and the Russian Federation.

Table 2.

Ten largest countries by population size in 1995 (estimate) and 2050 (medium projection). Adapted from United Nations (2007) .

To simplify the presentation of results, all projections discussed in this study are taken from the medium variant of the UN projections ( United Nations 2007 ). The UN has a good record of making relatively accurate projections ( National Research Council 2000 ), but the future is of course uncertain and actual population trends over the next half century will likely diverge to some extent from current projections. The UN makes an effort to capture this uncertainty by publishing separate high and low projections. For the world, the high and low variants reach 7.8 and 10.8 billion, respectively, in 2050, indicating a rather wide range of possible outcomes (see dashed lines in figure 1 ).

3. Drivers of population growth: fertility and mortality

The world's population increases every year because the global birth rate exceeds the death rate. For example, in 2000–2005 population size increased at a rate of 1.17 per cent per year, which equals the difference between a birth rate of 2.03 per cent and a death rate of 0.86 per cent. At the country level, population growth is also affected by migration, but for the regional aggregates of population used in this analysis, migration is usually a minor factor, and it will therefore not be discussed in detail.

The annual birth and death rates of populations are in turn primarily determined by levels of fertility and mortality experienced by individuals. The most widely used fertility indicator is the total fertility rate (TFR), which equals the number of births a woman would have by the end of her reproductive years if she experienced the age-specific fertility rates prevailing in a given year. Mortality is often measured by the life expectancy (LE) at birth, which equals the average number of years a newborn would live if subjected to age-specific mortality rates observed in a given year.

(a) Fertility

The UN's past estimates and future projections of fertility levels by region for the period 1950–2050 are presented in figure 2 . In the 1950s, the TFR in the South was high and virtually stable at around six births per woman on average. This high level of fertility reflects a near absence of birth control, a condition that has prevailed for centuries before the middle of the twentieth century. In the late 1960s, a rapid decline in fertility started nearly simultaneously in Asia and Latin America. In contrast, Africa has experienced only limited reproductive change. As a result of these divergent past trends, fertility levels in 2000–2005 differed widely among regions from as high as 5 births per woman (bpw) in Africa, to 2.5 bpw in Asia and Latin America. Average fertility in the North was already low in the early 1950s and has since declined to 2.0 bpw in Northern America and to 1.4 bpw in Europe.

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Trends in the total fertility rate by region.

The decline in the average fertility in the South from 6 to 3 bpw over the past half century has been very rapid by historical standards. This reproductive revolution is mainly due to two factors. First, desired family size of parents has declined as the cost of children rose and child survival increased. Second, government intervention played a key role. In China this took the form of a coercive and unpopular one-child policy, but most other countries implemented voluntary family planning programmes. The aim of these programmes is to provide information about and access to contraceptives at subsidized prices so that women who want to limit their childbearing can more readily do so.

UN projections for the South assume that the TFR will eventually reach and then fall slightly below the so-called ‘replacement’ level in all regions. Replacement fertility is just above 2 bpw and it represents the level at which each generation just replaces the previous one, thus leading to zero population growth (in the absence of mortality change and migration). Below-replacement fertility produces, in the long run, population decline. As is evident from figure 2 , the TFRs in Asia and Latin America are expected to reach the replacement level around 2020. Africa is assumed to be on a much slower trajectory towards replacement fertility because of its lower level of socio-economic development. High fertility therefore remains a key cause of future population growth in this region. In contrast, the already low fertility of the North is expected to remain below replacement and is no longer driving population growth.

(b) Mortality and life expectancy

Mortality levels have also changed rapidly over the past several decades ( figure 3 ). The South experienced exceptional improvements in LE from an average of 41 years in 1950–1955 to 64 years in 2000–2005. By the early 2000, Latin America reached mortality levels similar to those prevailing in the North in the 1970s, and Asia was just a few years behind. Africa experienced the highest mortality and improvements in LE stalled in the 1990s due to the AIDS epidemic. As a result, Africa's LE, at 52 years in 2000–2005, was still substantially below that of Asia (68) and Latin America (72). As expected, Europe and Northern America already achieved relatively low levels of mortality by 1950, but they have nevertheless seen significant further improvements since then. Europe's LE (74) is now lower than North America's (78) because of a rise in mortality in Eastern Europe after the break-up of the Soviet Union.

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Trends in LE by region.

Projections of future LEs by the UN assume continued improvements over time in all regions. The North is expected to reach 82 years in 2050 despite the increasing difficulty in achieving increments as countries reach ever higher levels of LE. Asia and Latin America are expected to continue to close the gap with the North, and Africa will continue to lag, in part because the continent remains affected by the AIDS epidemic.

It should be noted that the assumptions made by the UN about future trends in fertility and mortality are not based on a firm theoretical basis. Instead, the UN relies on empirical regularities in past trends in countries that have completed their transitions, mostly in the North, where fertility declined to approximately the replacement level, and increases in LE became smaller over time. This is a plausible approach that unfortunately leaves room for potential inaccuracies in projection results.

4. Changing population age composition

Over the course of the demographic transition, declines in fertility and mortality cause important changes in a population's age composition. In general, countries in the early stages of the transition have a younger age structure than countries in the later stages.

Figure 4 presents the distribution of the 2005 population in four broad age groups: 0–14, 15–24, 25–64 and 65+ by region. Most of the regions in the South—Africa, Latin America, South Asia and West Asia—have very young age structures with about half of the population under age 25 (62% in Africa). The exception is East Asia (mostly China) where this proportion is 37 per cent. In the North, the population under 25 is still smaller: 35 per cent in North America and just 30 per cent in Europe. The reverse pattern is observed for the proportion 65+, which is much higher in the North than in the South, ranging from as high as 15 per cent in Europe to as low as just 3 per cent in Africa.

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Distribution of population by age, by region, 2005.

(a) The age-dependency ratio

A changing age distribution has significant social and economic consequences, e.g. for the allocation of education, healthcare and social security resources to the young and old. Assessments of this impact often rely on the so-called age-dependency ratio (DR) that summarizes key changes in the age structure. The DR at a given point in time equals the ratio of population aged below 15 and over 65 to the population of age 15–64. This ratio aims to measure how many ‘dependents’ there are for each person in the ‘productive’ age group. Obviously, not every person below 15 and over 65 is a dependent and not every person between ages 15 and 65 is productive. Despite its crudeness, this indicator is widely used to document broad trends in the age composition.

Over the course of a demographic transition, the DR shows a characteristic pattern of change. Figure 5 presents this pattern as observed in the South from 1950 to 2005 and projected from 2005 to 2050. Early in the transition, the DR typically first rises slightly as improvements in survival chances of children raise the number of young people. Next, the DR falls sharply as declines in fertility reduce the proportion of the population under age 15. This decline has important economic consequences because it creates a so-called ‘demographic dividend’, which boosts economic growth by increasing the size of the labour force relative to dependents and by stimulating savings ( Birdsall et al . 2001 ). Finally, at the end of the transition, the DR increases again as the proportion of the population over age 65 rises. Figure 5 also plots the DR of the North from 1950–2050. From 1950 to 2010 it showed a slight decline, but after 2010 it rises steeply as very low fertility and increasing longevity increases the proportion 65+. This ageing of the North poses serious challenges to support systems for the elderly (OECD 1998 , 2001 ).

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Dependency ratio estimates, 1950–2005.

(b) Population momentum

At the end of the demographic transition natural population growth reaches zero once three conditions are met:

  • Fertility levels-off at the replacement level of about 2.1 bpw (more precisely, the net reproduction rate should be 1). If fertility remains above replacement, population growth continues.
  • Mortality stops declining. In practice, this is not likely to happen because improvements in medical technology and healthcare as well as changes in lifestyles, etc. will probably ensure continued increases in LE.
  • The age structure has adjusted to the post-transitional levels of fertility and mortality.

The adjustment of the age structure at the end of the transition takes many decades to complete. A key implication of this slow adjustment process is that population growth continues for many years after replacement fertility is reached if, as is often the case, the population is still relatively young when fertility reaches the replacement level. The tendency of population size to increase after a two-child family size has been reached is referred to as population momentum ; it is the consequence of a young population age structure (‘young’ is defined relative to the age structure in the current life table) ( Bongaarts & Bulatao 1999 ).

The population momentum inherent in the age structure of a particular population at a given point in time can be estimated with a hypothetical population projection in which future fertility is set instantly to the replacement level, mortality is held constant and migration is set to zero. Since such a variant is not directly available from UN projections, it will not be presented here. However, the UN does provide ‘instant replacement’ projections in which mortality and migration trends are the same as in the standard projection. This projection gives an approximation of the combined effect on future growth of population momentum and declining mortality in the South because the role of migration is small. The difference between this hypothetical projection and the standard medium UN projection is a measure of the impact of high fertility on future population growth.

Results of these two projections are presented in figure 6 , which compares the per cent growth between 2005 and 2050 for regions in the South. The black bars give the growth in the standard (medium variant) projection and the grey bars give the growth in the ‘instant replacement’ projection. Three results are noteworthy. First, the two projections differ most in Africa (+117% versus +50%) which is as expected because fertility is still very high in this region. Second, in all regions of the South outside China, populations would be expected to rise by 50 per cent (62% in West Asia) if fertility were set to replacement in 2005. This implies that momentum and declining mortality are responsible for nearly half of the projected future population growth in Africa and for the large majority of growth in Latin America, and South and West Asia. Third, in East Asia and in Latin America the replacement projection exceeds the medium UN projection. This finding is explained by the fact that fertility in these regions is assumed to average below the replacement level over the next half century.

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Percentage increase in population 2005–2050, by region, alternative projections. Black bars denote medium UN projection; grey bars denote instant replacement projection (hypothetical).

5. Conclusion

The world and most countries are going through a period of unprecedentedly rapid demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the huge expansion of human numbers: four billion have been added since 1950. Other demographic processes are also experiencing extraordinary change: women are having fewer births and LEs have risen to new highs. Past trends in fertility and/or mortality have led to very young populations in high fertility countries in the South and to increasingly older populations in the North. Still other important demographic changes which were not reviewed here include rapid urbanization, international migration, and changes in family and household structure.

Global population growth will continue for decades, reaching around 9.2 billion in 2050 and peaking still higher later in the century. The demographic drivers of this growth are high fertility in parts of the South, as well as declining mortality and momentum. This large expansion in human numbers and of the accompanying changes in the age structure will have multiple consequences for society, the economy and the environment as discussed in the subsequent chapters in this issue.

One contribution of 14 to a Theme Issue ‘ The impact of population growth on tomorrow's world ’.

  • Birdsall N., Kelley A., Sinding S.2001 Population matters: demographic change, economic growth and poverty in the developing world Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press [ Google Scholar ]
  • Bongaarts J., Bulatao R.1999 Completing the demographic transition . Popul. Dev. Rev. 25 , 515–529 ( doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.1999.00515.x ) [ Google Scholar ]
  • Bongaarts J., Buettner J., Heilig G., Pelletier F.2008 Has the AIDS epidemic peaked? Popul. Dev. Rev. 34 , 199–224 ( doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00217.x ) [ Google Scholar ]
  • National Research Council 2000 Beyond six billion: forecasting the world's population (eds Bongaarts J., Bulatao R.). Washington, DC: National Academy Press [ Google Scholar ]
  • OECD 1998 Maintaining prosperity in an ageing society Paris: OECD Publications [ Google Scholar ]
  • OECD 2001 The fiscal implications of ageing: projections of age-related spending . OECD Economic Outlook 69 , 145–167 [ Google Scholar ]
  • UNAIDS 2007 AIDS Epidemic Update Geneva: UNAIDS [ Google Scholar ]
  • United Nations 1962 Demographic yearbook New York, NY: United Nations [ Google Scholar ]
  • United Nations 1973 The determinants and consequences of population trends New York, NY: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Studies 50, United Nations [ Google Scholar ]
  • United Nations 2007 World population prospects: the 2006 revision New York, NY: United Nations Population Division [ Google Scholar ]

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